According to statistics, the 2011 New York Giants. Which is funny considering the team they beat, the 2011 Patriots, would have also been the worst The Broncos could muster only 35 net passing yards. Nobody has a tougher September schedule: vs Seattle, vs the Rams, at Tennessee, at Miami, at Baltimore. To handle the uncertainty in the timing of Wentz's return, FPI gives the QB a very small chance to play in Week 1 and gradually increases the chance of his return until Week 8 -- spanning the range of the recovery timeline laid out last week by coach Frank Reich. This 97 Cardinals team scored 78. Atlanta Falcons +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total), New coach, new offensive coordinator just too much newness for me., That being said, going 2-8 in one-score games last year was a killer, and if the ball bounces differently in 2021, maybe theyre hovering around .500. While that's a long shot with Kansas City in the conference, both the Ravens and Browns have at least a 10% shot to pull it off. What puts Baltimore on this list is the lack of offensive prowess. An 115 team that didn't exceed in anything, but had John Elway. Id have to guess the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. Take note: This isn't technically a ranking of the teams from very worst to very best, although the worse teams tend to be toward the bottom and the better teams toward the top. Those first three are the Broncos' first three games of the season, an easy slate right off the bat. Dick Vermeil's boys just missed out on the Lombardi Trophy with one bad day. Tough division, and they open with three of four on the road. At best, the Falcons are a playoff team, but theyd need something calamitous to happen to the Bucs to have a shot to win the division., 21. They play in an easy division and should be able to host a playoff game. Detroit Lions +12500 (bet $10 to win $1260 total), There is a universe in which the Lions ride an inspired Jared Goff and underrated defensive talent to seven or eight wins., But the schedule is brutal six road games against playoff teams from 2020! ONCE. Oh, if they only handed the ball off the Marshawn Lynch. Matt Rhule is building something in Carolina as he enters his second year, taking a chance he can resurrect Sam Darnold's career. Cleveland Browns +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total), Are the Browns a better team than the Cowboys? They played in plenty of close games, and Steve McNair and Eddie George were superb. Finishing 133 and a high-energy offense by Sean McVay, the Rams were a force to be reckoned with. But even with all that, its not even the best Super Bowl of the last two years. Peyton Manning was on another level this season, leading his offense to score a jarring 37.9 points per game, but the team around him was lacking. New head coach Arthur Smith has some work to do this summer. 22. 28. The Lions are the next-most likely team to earn the No. The problem is that for the first time in years, the Patriots have a brutal schedule. The Patriots dynasty started with a massive upset that ended with a Tom Brady game-winning drive and clutch kick by Adam Vinatieri. 1 in just about every projection you can imagine, including projected wins (11.5) and chances to reach the playoffs (89%), win their division (72%), be the No. Winning close games and narrowly escaping the agony of defeat is one way to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and while that path may not be the most exciting or exhilarating, it has been traveled on multiple occasions. The AFC West belongs to the Kansas City Chiefs, but second place is there for the taking. The Texans did finish 4-12 last season, even as Watson reached career highs in completion percentage (70.2), passing yards (4,823), touchdown passes (33). The Chiefs defense also surrendered 31 points. Kind of. Matt Ryan was an MVP and led the best offense, but the defense surrendered 25.4 points per game. Is this a bad thing?No, but it does not exactly make for one of the most dominant championship teams of all time. But the rest of the roster is important, too. A full explanation for how FPI works can be found here, but here's the abridged version: The model determines forward-looking strength ratings for every team based on a variety of factors, including team win total, projected starting quarterback, returning starters and past performance on offense, defense and special teams. Four teams have yet to even reach the Super Bowl (two of them started as a franchise after 1990). As Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers went back and forth to win the title, Super Bowl LIV is the 13th-best Super Bowl on our list. On the other end of the spectrum is Denver. Unfortunately for them, that stopped in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. They were also had to win all their road playoff games, which during the time, was unheard of. And that's embodied by an extreme result: The NFC East is the only division that recorded a simulation with a five-win champion. Yes, the Chiefs -- not the Super Bowl-champion Buccaneers -- are projected to be the best team and also have the best chances to hoist the Lombardi trophy next February. In the playoffs, Indianapolis Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt had to have a meltdown of epic proportions to send the Steelers to the Conference Championship and cover up for Bettis' fumble earlier in the contest. Theyre basically the 2020 Patriots, who lost a Hall of Fame QB, had a ton of opt-outs defensively (the Saints lost five key contributors to free agency), and have no receivers (given the Michael Thomas surgery). Even if Kevin Dyson had pulled a Michael Jordan in Space Jam and reached the ball over the goal line, the game would have gone to overtime. 1 seed in the AFC (32%) and reach the Super Bowl (30%). It's what helps people grow. Some may argue this should be higher than third, but, before Scott Norwoods infamous miss, the Giants and Bills did not give us a very exciting game. Two years ago, the 49ers were 10 minutes away from winning the Super Bowl, and they return eight defensive starters from that team. 2007 Giants, 2007 Patriots, 2006 Colts, or the 2009 Saints, with a 25th overall defense, could say they were all the worst defensive teams to win a But they have arguably the toughest schedule in the NFC (nine games against playoff teams from 2020), including a stretch that goes: at Baltimore, at Chargers, home vs Aaron Rodgers, at the 49ers. The presence of Lawrence gives Jacksonville hope for the first time in years. The "Greatest Show On Turf" was the potential dynasty derailed by New England Patriots. That tops the 2020 Jaguars, who entered last season at 23% and ended up earning that No. Both Cowboys-Bills Super Bowl were blowouts, but this one was at least competitive into the third quarter. Denver got out to a 10-0 lead before Washington dropped a Super Bowl-record 35 points in the second quarter on the Broncos defense. Yes, the New York Giants knocked off the 18-0 New England Patriots. But itll face Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers before Halloween. Twelve franchises have never captured a Super Bowl title. Another dynasty toppled by Tom Brady, but the "Legion of Boom" should not be undersold. Ranked below are the 20 worst NFL players to win a Super Bowl since 2000. Miamis three points is still the fewest points scored in a Super Bowl. This team just wasn't ready yet. The Dolphins capped off the only perfect season ever, despite Garo Yepremian give us an all-time blooper. But hey, they did something right, they were in the Super Bowl. 15. Watch more top videos, highlights, and B/R original content, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Its more fun to speculate on the Bears QB race than it is their actual Super Bowl chances., 24. The Ravens and Browns rank fourth and sixth in FPI rating -- basically true talent level -- but are fifth and seventh in chances to reach the playoffs and win the Super Bowl, respectively. Here are the 10 teams most likely to win Super Bowl LV: Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay is still not that likely, however. I'm sure fans in Baltimore still curse Joe Namath's Super Bowl guarantee. Cleveland has the game's top running back tandem in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, a duo head coach Kevin Stefanski utilizes heavily in the offense. They lost the Super Bowl 1055 against the San Francisco 49ers. Here is a quarterback guru who never could quite develop a quarterback as a head coach. (Hey, at least it worked out for them with Trevor Lawrence being available.). And while the effect isn't dramatic, they would each be a little better off if the other weren't around. It was not only totally unexpected but it was made possible by a play-call that will be debated for years to come. So, which teams have won it all, but look inferior to their championship brethren in retrospect? Buffalo is on the doorstep of reaching the league championship game, thanks to the emergence of Josh Allen as one of the game's best quarterbacks. Watson led the NFL in passing yards and yards per attempt, carrying an offense that finished 31st in the league in rushing. Not having Wentz is certainly a downgrade: FPI's predictive quarterback rating system believes backup Jacob Eason's mean projected season is roughly on par with Wentz's (poor) 2020 campaign. One of the bigger mismatches in Super Bowl history, this one gets bonus points for being the first one and the Chiefs actually keeping things interesting for 30 minutes after going into the half trailing by only four points. Wait, Dilfer isn't iconic. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. Detroit has some work to do on the defensive side of the ball, a monumental task for new defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn (gave up a league-worst 112.4 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks in 2020). Cincinnati Bengals +10000 (bet $10 to win $1010 total), The Bengals will be improved, but theyre not higher on this list for three reasons:. Kam Chancellor should have been MVP. While Kansas City's 19% chance to win the Super Bowl might be more than any other team's, FPI is also saying that there's a 4-in-5 chance that a team other than the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl. Therefore, designating Garoppolo as the starter seemed the safer choice. Cole Beasley is also a reliable target for Allen, who does as much damage from the outside as well as the slot. Chark will help Lawrence out immensely, especially with James Robinson, Carlos Hyde, and Travis Etienne capable of creating a balanced rushing attack. The wild card is first-time head coach Brandon Staley, who probably is an upgrade over Anthony Lynn but hes only been in the NFL since 2017, so how could anyone say for sure? Forget about Super Bowl history, this was one of the best games in the history of American sports. The Lions are in the first year of a rebuild, as Dan Campbell looks to change the culture of a franchise that has just one playoff win over the last 63 years. First place on this list scored 140 points in my grading system. San Francisco 49ers +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total), Tricky to put San Francisco here given the uncertainty at QB, but theres no way they actually start 21-year-old Trey Lance, right?. 5. Tennessee Titans +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total), Probably the favorites in the division given the Colts' injuries, but Im leery of taking the bait. W. 23-20. Buffalo has a top 10 pass defense led by one of the game's best cornerbacks in Tre'Davious White and Pro Bowl snub Jordan Poyer, but the run defense has to improve to beat a team like Kansas City. Were on a run of blowouts now. Phil Simms set the record for completion percentage after finishing 22-of-25 in an MVP effort. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens featured one of the most stifling defenses ever assembled, allowing only 970 rushing yards all season and five rushing touchdowns. So why are they lower value-wise? Everyone's mind goes to Rex Grossman, but people forget this overall team was more than their quarterback. John Elway finally won his ring in a well-played game that featured one of the best performances by a running back in Super Bowl history. It was a sloppy game that was marred by questionable refereeing, but Bill Cowher and Jerome Bettis finally winning a Lombardi Trophy thanks to Willie Parkers record-setting touchdown run and Hines Ward throwing for a score made this a memorable Super Bowl. This 11-5Oakland Raiders teamfinished second in the AFC West in an era when there were only three divisions. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. WebThe Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI versus the Bengals on February 13, 2022. worst team defense to win a super bowl The Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI 5 offense. Which is a shame, because this 11-4-1 team had a defense that was really impressive throughout the year. Trent Dilfer. They also secured the first ring in franchise history. Washington led 24-3 at one point. NFL fans would have to get used that kind of ending. After power was restored, the 49ers turned what looked to be another big game blowout into a nail-biter that Baltimore won thanks to a goal line stand and some questionable San Francisco play-calling. It's all about the schedule. This one was actually pretty entertaining for the first 30 minutes. 14. Baltimore has a unique spot on this list because its inclusion is not based on mediocre talent (it had players like Bubba Smith and Johnny Unitas) or that it struggled to win games (the Colts went 11-2-1). Four NFL teams the Browns, Lions, Jaguars, and Texans have never appeared in the Super Bowl. FPI is working under the assumption that Deshaun Watson will not play for the Texans this season. Cam Newton had an MVP season to remember and ran an offense that produced 31.3 points per game. Same goes for this one. If Lance does beat out Garoppolo, that would be a sign he is comparable to the veteran, and thus a downgrade might not make sense. Jets, vs. Eagles, vs. Lions, vs. Bengals and a home-and-home with the Raiders. There were 11 total turnovers in the game and the Cowboys took it one step further with a Super Bowl-record 10 penalties. Tom Brady led the offense with Randy Moss and Wes Welker to score 36.8 points per game. New York had to scrap its way to the Super Bowl. When thinking about the 1990 season, it is hard to conjure up images of anything other than Buffalo Bills kicker Scott Norwood missing a potential Super Bowl-winning kick. In a 122 season, this team only surrendered more than 20 points once during the regular season. We cant put a Super Bowl featuring Rex Grossman too high on the list, but Peyton Manning winning his first ring salvages this one. Denver came in with a historically good offense. They have a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator, and rookie QB.. They took down what was supposed to be the greatest team in NFL history and instead became one of the least likely Super Bowl champions in recent memory. Craving even more NFL coverage focusing on previews, recaps, news and analysis? There are quite a few contenders to win their first Super Bowl in 2021, and the two favorites reside in the loaded AFC. The Jaguars and Jets are back-to-back in FPI's rankings -- at Nos. Brady and Belichick established the Patriots as a dynasty with their third Lombardi in four years. Kansas City will be this team's measuring stick, as the Chiefs are the only roster more talented than Buffalo's in the AFC. Although they have one less win, there stats still propel them ahead of the '86 team. And Chicago finds itself with eight games against FPI's top 10 teams: at Rams, at Browns, at Bucs, vs. 49ers, vs. Ravens, at Seahawks and then a home-and-home with the Packers. A game remembered more for trick plays and bad refereeing than the actual quality of either team, the Pittsburgh Steelers emerged victorious in their effort to send Jerome Bettis off into the sunset in style. FPI, which launched Monday, is a forward-looking projection model that includes ratings and projections for every team, from projected win-loss records to percentages to win each division. A 14-win team with a top 10 offense and defense. Here they are ranked: It was a lot of fun to research these teams to remember just how good they were their respective seasons. 2023 NFL Draft odds: Will Georgia's Stetson Bennett get selected? The Titans defense added Bud Dupree and Caleb Farley, but it may not be enough to make the the 24th-ranked unit (in points allowed) Super Bowl-caliber. Baltimore Ravens +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total), The best team in the rugged AFC North, but the least talked about. A crummy game turned into an instant classic thanks to a brilliant game-winning drive authored by Joe Montana. Los Angeles could put itself in position to contend for a playoff spot. The first of the Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowls gave us those beautiful NFL Films shots of Lynn Swanns acrobatic catch. and quarterback rating (112.4). and Im sorry, but Dan Campbell is not winning the Super Bowl this year., 30. 6) Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. An 11-win team with only 20.3 points per game. The defense ranked just 24th in the league that year, and a questionable call known as the "Tuck Rule" against the Oakland Raiders in the divisional round helped the Patriots reach the Super Bowl when many believed they did not belong. ODonnell set Larry Browns family up for life with his dreadful performance. This 1969 Minnesota Vikings team was elite and ranked first for both points scored and points against. BUT this 14-2 Atlanta Falcons team was no slouch. Tannehill is second in the league in passer rating (110.6), second in touchdown percentage (7.2) and first in yards per attempt (8.55). Chicago Bears +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total). Plenty of fans were made because the 1998 Minnesota Vikings are the best team of all time to never make a Super Bowl. Please check your email for a confirmation. Cincinnatis late onside kick attempt failed and deprived us of what could have been a classic ending. And in these two cases, both quarterbacks will have below-average pass protection in front of them, and both will be trying to compensate for their teams' defenses, which both rank in FPI's bottom six. Sign up for the For The Win newsletter to get our top stories in your inbox every morning. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson don't lack confidence at NFL combine, Bettors are backing Bears, Lions, Jets to make, win Super Bowl, NFLPA report cards show link between player-friendly coaches and winning, Georgia's Nolan Smith turns heads with blazing 40 at NFL combine, Alabama QB Bryce Young confident in abilities, downplays questions about frame, Stroud opposes Bears drafting him, defends Fields: 'That's his team', Sharp: Ravens have themselves to blame for not getting Lamar Jackson help, 49ers offseason preview: Potential Super Bowl team must figure out QB spot. It also gave us the first and only Super Bowl blackout. One could argue the Steelers have the worst QB in the division in 39-year old Ben Roethlisberger, who had 10 interceptions in the teams final seven games. The 2007 New England Patriots won every game (160) and did so in tremendous fashion. The market is super high on Buffalo theyre only underdogs in two games, vs Tampa and KC but there likely will be some form of regression. The Dolphins won their second consecutive Super Bowl in a game that was over well before the fourth quarter. If you look at the teams in this stratosphere, theres a lot of continuity at the coordinator positions and, obviously, head coach and QB. They had a four-game losing streak, two in overtime, they were actually really good on both offense and defense. Herbert has immensely changed the fortunes of a franchise that mired in mediocrity during Philip Rivers' final years. "Broadway Joe" completed just 49.2 percent of his passes during the season and threw two more interceptions (17) than he did touchdowns (15). The run offense needs to be stronger with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss as the offensive line has to create better holes up front to take the pressure off Allen. It did earn him a bunch of money. Of course, it is impossible to label a Super Bowl-winning team as average, but this 49ers team was certainly not up to par with others. It took just seven wins for Washington to top the NFC East last season, and FPI still doesn't think much of the division a year later. FPI then uses those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times to create projections. 25. Just as importantly, no team lost more games to injury last year than the 49ers, And thats at every position. So its only fitting that the winner of Super Bowl 53 will have a defense that finished the regular season below the league average. The model gains confidence because of all of the returning starters from an already good unit. One playoff win and taking the Kansas City Chiefs to the brink last season opened opportunities for the Browns, who possess one of the most talented rosters in the conference. Im all aboard the Trevor Lawrence bandwagon., 8. If Atlanta can create holes up front for free agent signing Mike Davis, the Falcons offense may be good enough to carry a defense that needs some work. And the Chiefs would hold at least a 3.5-point edge over every team outside of the Bucs, Bills and Ravens. 29 and 30. Had Rodgers simply decided to retire rather than suit up, Green Bay's chances to make the playoffs would have dropped from 70% to 24%, and their Super Bowl chances would have dropped from 6% to 0.2%. But we are going to look past that kick for just a minute. 12. The NFC, with two of the top six teams in FPI rating, is a little less threatening than the AFC. FIFA World Cup - Best Goals from Every Angle, Draw for the FIFA Women's World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023, C.J. It helps that the Browns arguably have a top three offensive line in football (if not the best). And we dont even know who their QB is (probably Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock).. Green Bay Packers +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total), The Packers are tied for the second-best odds to win the NFC, but their arduous schedule includes a league-high 10 games against teams that made the playoffs last year. Just how goofy was this game? 1 pick in the 2022 NFL draft, with a 15% chance, followed by the Jets (10%), Jaguars (8%) and Eagles (7%). The game may have been bad, but this is NFL history. Throw in Trent Dilfer leading the other offense and a game that was never competitive, and this is easily the worst Super Bowl of all-time.
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